The lifetime probability (or risk) of developing or dying from cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of his or her lifetime (from birth to death), of being diagnosed with or dying from cancer. These risk estimates, like annual incidence and mortality data, provide another measure of the how widespread cancer is.

The following tables list lifetime probabilities of developing and dying from certain cancers for men and women. The information is from the U.S. National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database, and is based on incidence and mortality data for the United States from 2004 through 2006, the most current years for which data are available.

The risk is expressed both in terms of percent and as odds. For example, the risk that a man will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime is 3.81%. This means he has about 1 chance in 26 of developing bladder cancer (100/3.81 = 26). Put another way, 1 out of every 26 men will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime.

These numbers are average risks for the overall U.S. population. An individual person's risk may be higher or lower than these numbers, depending on their particular risk factors.

Males

Risk of Developing

Risk of Dying From

%

1 in

%

1 in

All Invasive Sites	44.05	2		23.24	4
Bladder (includes in situ)	3.81	26		0.83	120
Brain & Other Nervous System	0.67	149		0.48	208
Breast	0.12	833		0.03	3,333
Colon & Rectum	5.39	19		2.19	46
Esophagus	0.79	127		0.78	128
Hodgkin Disease	0.25	400		0.05	2,000
Kidney & Renal Pelvis	1.80	56		0.59	169
Larynx	0.61	164		0.23	435
Leukemia	1.51	66		0.99	101
Liver & Bile Duct	1.01	99		0.74	135
Lung & Bronchus	7.73	13		7.04	14
Melanoma of the Skin	2.30	43		0.39	256
Multiple Myeloma	0.72	139		0.46	217
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma	2.28	44		0.89	112
Oral Cavity & Pharynx	1.40	71		0.38	263
Pancreas	1.38	72		1.26	79
Prostate	15.90	6		2.80	36
Stomach	1.11	90		0.54	185
Testicles	0.37	270		0.02	5,000
Thyroid	0.44	227		0.05	2,000

Females

Risk of Developing

Risk of Dying From

%

1 in

%

1 in

All Invasive Sites	37.63	3		19.65	5
Bladder (includes in situ)	1.18	85		0.33	303
Brain & Other Nervous System	0.54	185		0.38	263
Breast	12.08	8		2.84	35
Cervix	0.69	145		0.23	435
Colon & Rectum	5.03	20		2.04	49
Uterine Corpus	2.53	40		0.52	192
Esophagus	0.25	400		0.22	455
Hodgkin Disease	0.21	476		0.04	2,500
Kidney & Renal Pelvis	1.09	92		0.35	286
Larynx	0.14	714		0.06	1,667
Leukemia	1.08	93		0.71	141
Liver & Bile Duct	0.46	217		0.41	244
Lung & Bronchus	6.46	16		5.04	20
Melanoma of the Skin	1.52	66		0.20	500
Multiple Myeloma	0.56	179		0.38	263
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma	1.92	52		0.74	135
Oral Cavity & Pharynx	0.66	152		0.18	556
Ovary	1.40	71		1.05	95
Pancreas	1.39	72		1.25	80
Stomach	0.68	147		0.36	278
Thyroid	1.25	80		0.07	1,429

References

National Cancer Institute. SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2006. Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Being Diagnosed with Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, 17 SEER Areas, 2004-2006 (Table 1-15) and Females, 17 SEER Areas, 2004-2006 (Table 1-16). 2009. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2006/browse_csr.php?section=1&page=sect_01_table.16.html on June 22, 2009.

National Cancer Institute. SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2006. Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Dying from Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, Total U.S., 2004-2006 (Table 1-18) and Females, Total U.S., 2004-2006 (Table 1-19). 2009. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2006/results_merged/topic_lifetime_risk_death.pdf on June 22, 2009.

Last Medical Review: 07/13/2009
Last Revised: 07/13/2009