Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying From Cancer
The lifetime risk of developing or dying from cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of his or her lifetime (from birth to death), of being diagnosed with or dying from cancer. These risk estimates, like annual incidence and mortality data, provide another measure of how widespread cancer is in the United States.
The following tables list lifetime risks of developing and dying from certain cancers for men and women. The information is from the US National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database, and is based on incidence and mortality data for the United States from 2006 through 2008, the most current years for which data are available.
The risk is expressed both in terms of percent and as odds. For example, the risk that a man will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime is 3.84%. This means he has about 1 chance in 26 of developing bladder cancer (100/3.84 = 26). Put another way, 1 out of every 26 men in the United States will develop bladder cancer during his lifetime.
These numbers are average risks for the overall US population. Your risk may be higher or lower than these numbers, depending on your particular risk factors.
Males
Risk of developing |
Risk of dying from | |||
% |
1 in |
% |
1 in | |
All invasive sites |
44.85 |
2 |
23.12 |
4 |
Bladder (includes in situ) |
3.84 |
26 |
0.86 |
116 |
Brain and nervous system |
0.68 |
147 |
0.49 |
204 |
Breast |
0.13 |
769 |
0.03 |
3,333 |
Colon and rectum |
5.27 |
19 |
2.14 |
47 |
Esophagus |
0.79 |
127 |
0.79 |
127 |
Hodgkin disease |
0.25 |
400 |
0.05 |
2,000 |
Kidney and renal pelvis |
1.97 |
51 |
0.60 |
167 |
Larynx (voice box) |
0.60 |
167 |
0.22 |
455 |
Leukemia |
1.57 |
64 |
1.01 |
99 |
Liver and bile duct |
1.13 |
88 |
0.79 |
127 |
Lung and bronchus |
7.66 |
13 |
6.85 |
15 |
Melanoma of the skin |
2.43 |
41 |
0.41 |
244 |
Multiple myeloma |
0.75 |
133 |
0.46 |
217 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma |
2.34 |
43 |
0.88 |
114 |
Oral cavity and pharynx |
1.45 |
69 |
0.38 |
263 |
Pancreas |
1.45 |
69 |
1.30 |
77 |
Prostate |
16.48 |
6 |
2.77 |
36 |
Stomach |
1.10 |
91 |
0.52 |
192 |
Testicles |
0.37 |
270 |
0.02 |
5,000 |
Thyroid |
0.50 |
200 |
0.05 |
2,000 |
Females
Risk of developing |
Risk of dying from | |||
% |
1 in |
% |
1 in | |
All invasive sites |
38.08 |
3 |
19.50 |
5 |
Bladder (includes in situ) |
1.15 |
87 |
0.34 |
294 |
Brain and nervous system |
0.53 |
189 |
0.38 |
263 |
Breast |
12.29 |
8 |
2.78 |
36 |
Cervix |
0.68 |
147 |
0.24 |
417 |
Colon and rectum |
4.91 |
20 |
1.99 |
50 |
Esophagus |
0.24 |
417 |
0.21 |
476 |
Hodgkin disease |
0.21 |
476 |
0.04 |
2,500 |
Kidney and renal pelvis |
1.19 |
84 |
0.35 |
286 |
Larynx (voice box) |
0.14 |
714 |
0.06 |
1,667 |
Leukemia |
1.14 |
88 |
0.71 |
141 |
Liver and bile duct |
0.49 |
204 |
0.42 |
238 |
Lung and bronchus |
6.33 |
16 |
5.04 |
20 |
Melanoma of the skin |
1.57 |
64 |
0.20 |
500 |
Multiple myeloma |
0.56 |
179 |
0.37 |
270 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma |
1.94 |
52 |
0.72 |
139 |
Oral cavity and pharynx |
0.67 |
149 |
0.18 |
556 |
Ovary |
1.40 |
71 |
1.02 |
98 |
Pancreas |
1.45 |
69 |
1.29 |
78 |
Stomach |
0.67 |
149 |
0.34 |
294 |
Thyroid |
1.44 |
69 |
0.07 |
1,429 |
Uterine corpus |
2.61 |
38 |
0.54 |
185 |
References
National Cancer Institute. SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2008. Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Being Diagnosed with Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, 17 SEER Areas, 2006-2008 (Table 1.15) and Females, 17 SEER Areas, 2006-2008 (Table 1.16). 2011. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2008/results_merged/topic_lifetime_risk_diagnosis.pdf on December 8, 2011.
National Cancer Institute. SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2008. Lifetime Risk (Percent) of Dying from Cancer by Site and Race/Ethnicity: Males, Total US, 2006-2008 (Table 1.18) and Females, Total US, 2006-2008 (Table 1.19). 2011. Accessed at http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2008/results_merged/topic_lifetime_risk_death.pdf on December 8, 2011.
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