Survival Rates for Melanoma Skin Cancer

Survival rates are a way to measure how many people survive a certain type of cancer over time. They cannot tell you exactly what will happen with any one person, but they might help give you a better understanding of how likely it is that treatment will be successful.

What is a 5-year relative survival rate?

A relative survival rate compares people with the same type and stage of cancer with people in the overall population.

For example, if the 5-year relative survival rate for a specific stage of melanoma of the skin is 90%, it means that people who have that cancer are, on average, about 90% as likely as similar people who don’t have that cancer to live for at least 5 years after being diagnosed.

Where do these survival rate numbers come from?

The American Cancer Society relies on information from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, maintained by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), to provide survival statistics for different types of cancer.

The SEER database tracks 5-year relative survival rates for melanoma skin cancer in the United States, based on how far the cancer has spread. However, the SEER database does not group cancers by AJCC TNM stages (stage I, stage II, stage III, etc.). Instead, it groups cancers into localized, regional, and distant stages.

• Localized: There is no sign that the cancer has spread beyond the skin where it started.
• Regional: The cancer has spread beyond the skin where it started to nearby structures or lymph nodes.
• Distant: The cancer has spread to distant parts of the body, such as the lungs, liver, brain, skin, or lymph nodes in other parts of the body.

5-year relative survival rates for melanoma skin cancer

These numbers are based on people diagnosed with melanoma between 2015 and 2021.

SEER stage	5-year relative survival rate
Localized	>99%
Regional	76%
Distant	36%
All SEER stages combined	95%

 

Understanding the numbers

These numbers apply only to the stage of the cancer when it is first diagnosed. They do not apply later on if the cancer grows, spreads, or comes back after treatment.

These numbers don’t take everything into account, and each person is different. Survival rates are based on how far the cancer has spread. But other factors such as your age, overall health, and how well the cancer responds to treatment can also affect your outlook. For example, younger people tend to have a better outlook than older people, regardless of the stage. And people who have weakened immune systems, such as those who have had organ transplants or who are living with HIV, are at greater risk of dying from their melanoma.

People diagnosed with melanoma now might have a better outlook than these numbers show. Treatments for melanoma have improved over time, and these numbers are based on people who were diagnosed and treated at least 5 years earlier.

Keep in mind that survival rates are estimates, and they can’t predict what will happen in any person’s case. These statistics can be confusing and might lead you to have more questions. Ask your doctor how these numbers might apply to you.