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Cancer Risk and Prevention

Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying From Cancer

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The lifetime risk of developing or dying from cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of their lifetime (from birth to death), of being diagnosed with or dying from cancer. These risk estimates are one way to measure how widespread cancer is in the United States.

The following tables list lifetime risks of developing and dying from certain cancers for men and women in the United States. The information is from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and is based on incidence data from 2017 through 2019 and mortality data from 2018 through 2020 in the US, the most recent years for which data are available.

The risk is expressed both in terms of a percentage and as odds.

  • For example, the risk that a man will develop cancer of the pancreas during his lifetime is 1.7%. This means he has about 1 chance in 58 of developing pancreatic cancer (100/1.7 = 58).
  • Put another way, 1 out of every 58 men in the United States will develop pancreatic cancer during his lifetime.

These numbers are average risks for the overall US population. Your risk may be higher or lower than these numbers, depending on your particular risk factors for each type of cancer.

Males

 

Risk of developing

Risk of dying from

 

%

1 in

%

1 in

Any cancer

41.6

2

19

5

Bladder (includes in situ)

3.6

28

0.8

119

Brain and nervous system

0.7

145

0.5

192

Breast

0.1

726

<0.1

3,476

Colon and rectum

4.3

23

1.6

61

Esophagus

0.8

127

0.7

144

Hodgkin lymphoma

0.2

431

<0.1

2,956

Kidney and renal pelvis

2.3

43

0.5

183

Larynx (voice box)

0.5

197

0.2

594

Leukemia

1.9

53

0.9

115

Liver and bile duct

1.5

65

1.0

100

Lung and bronchus

6.3

16

4.4

23

Melanoma of the skin*

3.6

28

0.4

248

Multiple myeloma

1.0

103

0.4

232

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

2.4

42

0.7

136

Oral cavity and pharynx
(mouth and throat)

1.7

59

0.4

248

Pancreas

1.7

58

1.4

74

Prostate

12.9

8

2.3

44

Stomach

1.0

101

0.4

260

Testicles

0.4

244

<0.1

4,889

Thyroid

0.7

153

0.1

1,780

Females

 

Risk of developing

Risk of dying from

 

%

1 in

%

1 in

Any cancer

39.6

3

17

6

Bladder (includes in situ)

1.1

89

0.3

311

Brain and nervous system

0.5

186

0.4

243

Breast

13

8

2.5

41

Cervix

0.7

152

0.2

473

Colon and rectum

3.9

25

1.5

67

Esophagus

0.2

434

0.2

536

Hodgkin lymphoma

0.2

527

<0.1

4,071

Kidney and renal pelvis

1.4

73

0.3

330

Larynx (voice box)

0.1

844

<0.1

2,416

Leukemia

1.3

75

0.6

159

Liver and bile duct

0.7

143

0.5

182

Lung and bronchus

5.9

17

3.8

26

Melanoma of the skin*

2.5

41

0.2

473

Multiple myeloma

0.8

131

0.4

284

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

1.9

52

0.6

176

Oral cavity and pharynx
(mouth and throat)

0.7

139

0.2

541

Ovary

1.1

87

0.8

130

Pancreas

1.7

60

1.3

74

Stomach

0.6

155

0.3

371

Thyroid

1.7

58

0.1

1,467

Uterus

3.1

32

0.7

153

*The risk numbers for melanoma are for non-Hispanic White individuals. The risk among people of other races/ethnicities is likely to be lower.

The American Cancer Society medical and editorial content team

Our team is made up of doctors and oncology certified nurses with deep knowledge of cancer care as well as journalists, editors, and translators with extensive experience in medical writing.

 

American Cancer Society. Lifetime Probability of Developing (2017-2019) or Dying (2018-2020) from Cancer (Cancer Facts & Figures 2024 Supplemental Data). 2024. Accessed at https://www.cancer.org/content/dam/cancer-org/research/cancer-facts-and-statistics/annual-cancer-facts-and-figures/2024/sd4-lifetime-probability-2024.pdf on January 18, 2024.

 

Last Revised: January 18, 2024

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