Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying From Cancer

The lifetime risk of developing or dying from cancer refers to the chance a person has, over the course of their lifetime (from birth to death), of being diagnosed with or dying from cancer. These risk estimates are one way to measure of how widespread cancer is in the United States.

The following tables list lifetime risks of developing and dying from certain cancers for men and women in the US. The information is from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and is based on incidence and mortality data for the United States from 2016 through 2018, the most recent years for which data are available.

The risk is expressed both in terms of a percentage and as odds.

  • For example, the risk that a man will develop cancer of the pancreas during his lifetime is 1.7%. This means he has about 1 chance in 59 of developing pancreatic cancer (100/1.7 = 59).
  • Put another way, 1 out of every 59 men in the United States will develop pancreatic cancer during his lifetime.

These numbers are average risks for the overall US population. Your risk may be higher or lower than these numbers, depending on your particular risk factors.

Males

 

Risk of developing

Risk of dying from

 

%

1 in

%

1 in

All invasive sites

40.2

2

20.5

5

Bladder (includes in situ)

3.8

26

0.9

109

Brain and nervous system

0.7

143

0.5

188

Breast

0.1

727

<0.1

3,260

Colon and rectum

4.2

24

1.8

57

Esophagus

0.8

126

0.7

137

Hodgkin lymphoma

0.2

434

<0.1

2,792

Kidney and renal pelvis

2.2

46

0.6

175

Larynx (voice box)

0.5

200

0.2

561

Leukemia

1.9

54

0.9

107

Liver and bile duct

1.5

69

1

97

Lung and bronchus

6.4

16

5

20

Melanoma of the skin

3.7

27

0.4

235

Multiple myeloma

1.0

105

0.5

218

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

2.4

42

0.8

126

Oral cavity and pharynx

1.7

60

0.4

239

Pancreas

1.7

59

1.4

71

Prostate

12.5

8

2.4

41

Stomach

1.0

98

0.4

239

Testicles

0.4

244

<0.1

4,982

Thyroid

0.7

149

0.1

1,699

Females

 

Risk of developing

Risk of dying from

 

%

1 in

%

1 in

All invasive sites

38.5

3

17.9

6

Bladder (includes in situ)

1.2

86

0.3

292

Brain and nervous system

0.5

186

0.4

239

Breast

12.9

8

2.5

39

Cervix

0.6

159

0.2

461

Colon and rectum

4.0

25

1.6

62

Esophagus

0.2

433

0.2

513

Hodgkin lymphoma

0.2

517

0

3,683

Kidney and renal pelvis

1.3

79

0.3

311

Larynx (voice box)

0.1

835

0

2,239

Leukemia

1.3

77

0.7

150

Liver and bile duct

0.6

157

0.5

182

Lung and bronchus

6.0

17

4.2

24

Melanoma of the skin

2.5

40

0.2

463

Multiple myeloma

0.7

138

0.4

272

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma

1.9

52

0.6

164

Oral cavity and pharynx

0.7

140

0.2

536

Ovary

1.2

85

0.8

119

Pancreas

1.6

61

1.4

73

Stomach

0.7

152

0.3

351

Thyroid

1.8

55

0.1

1,413

Uterus

3.1

32

0.7

154

 

The American Cancer Society medical and editorial content team

Our team is made up of doctors and oncology certified nurses with deep knowledge of cancer care as well as journalists, editors, and translators with extensive experience in medical writing.

Lifetime Risk of Developing and Dying from Cancer, 2016-2018. https://www.cancer.org/content/dam/cancer-org/research/cancer-facts-and-statistics/annual-cancer-facts-and-figures/2022/2022-lifetime-probability-2016-2018.pdf. 2022. Accessed May 11, 2022.

References

Lifetime Risk of Developing and Dying from Cancer, 2016-2018. https://www.cancer.org/content/dam/cancer-org/research/cancer-facts-and-statistics/annual-cancer-facts-and-figures/2022/2022-lifetime-probability-2016-2018.pdf. 2022. Accessed May 11, 2022.

Last Revised: May 12, 2022

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